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Developing a probabilistic program to analyze combinations of risk factors for arrhythmia detection

High School Showcase

Abstract

Arrhythmia is a disease characterized by abnormal electrical signals in the heart that results in ineffective pumping. Stethoscopes, as well as EKG's, are used to diagnose arrhythmia. Modern Stethoscopes diagnose arrhythmias with a 40 percent accuracy rate. EKGs, on the other hand, diagnose with an high accuracy rate but can be very expensive. Sometimes, money on EKGs can be wasted if you had a benign arrhythmia, i.e. heart simply skips a beat. This application/program analyzes combinations of certain risk factors that a person may have and gives the probability that a person develops a life-threatening arrhythmia. The program will be used with the numerical results of the stethoscope instead of a doctor’s diagnosis. The application will significantly reduce the cost of medical EKG's for families by correcting for inaccuracies in the diagnoses of the doctor's stethoscope, therefore reducing the number of useless EKG-related arrhythmia tests taken. The program has been tested using published data on arrhythmia patients from various websites, but it is not possible to get data on the probability that a person could develop arrhythmia. The program has been able to predict, probability was greater than 70 percent, that a person develops a life-threatening arrhythmia with an 80 percent accuracy rate.

Shouri Bochetty
RISE Online STEM Research Institute
Completed in 2018
Advisor: Jacklyn Naughton